Part 1 How Does a Typical Recession Progress?

Economists are awful at predicting Recessions. Why is that the case, when we have 300 years showing the same pattern?

Economic Recessions happen in a cyclical manner: approximately every 7-10 years there is a wider downturn in a country's economy, with the most common Recession definition being "two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth".

So why - if they are so regular - are economists so terrible at predicting exactly how and when they will occur? Let's be honest: economists are the ones who create terms like "negative growth", so we shouldn't be surprised.

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Typically, a Recession begins and envelopes a region or country as a series of dominoes fall. A downturn or failures in Sector X lead to Bank / Finance / Liquidity restrictions, which then flows through to Suppliers and the local Community in that Sector.

While these crises can happen in any sector at any time, they only turn into a full-blown Recession when the fourth domino falls: what was localized spreads into the Tertiary Network, followed by Negative Multiplier Effects (like rising Unemployment), before suddenly "We're All in this Together".

Like knowing that a speeding car will crash, but not knowing exactly how, it's hard to know which Sector will be 'X' this time around. As a business advisor helping SMEs prepare for this recession since 2018, even I would never have guessing the trigger in 2020 would be a global Pandemic.

So if you like how I connect the Great Frost of 1706 to the Panic of 1857 and the Dot Com Bust of 2000, then stay tuned for Part 2 of this presentation: How is the Coronavirus Recession Different from a Typical Progression -

Presented by International Business Advisor and Keynote Speaker Jacob Aldridge, host of "Don't Waste a Good Recession" - providing positive and practical guidance to businesses with 2-500 employees.

Learn more about Jacob or ask how he can support your business or your clients at www.jacobaldridge.com

Progress?